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Showing posts from April, 2020

Nigeria’s best head of state since independence?

From the first decade of its independence to date, Nigeria has so far been led by 12 heads of state. Nine of them were in power for at least more than two years. Which of them was the best? And how is this measured?  I answer these questions using just two economic variables: GDP growth rate and the price of oil.  Let’s plough through the numbers as we shovel out some stylized facts (depicted in the chart below. To view higher resolution version of the chart, please click here  or here ):   President Jonathan (in power from 2010 - 2015) had the highest oil price and Gen Gowon the lowest.  President Yar’adua  (2007 - 2010) had the highest growth rate and Shagari the lowest followed by Buhari.  President  Buhari  (2015 - 2019) is having the 3rd highest oil price, 11 times Gen Gowon's.  Gen Gowon  (1966 - 1975) recorded the 3rd highest growth rate, 15 times Buhari's (2nd lowest). However, Buhari has a few years left to improv

ON INEQUALITY IN NIGERIA

LINKING THE EVOLUTION OF INEQUALITY IN NIGERIA TO THE RESPONSE OF POVERTY TO GROWTH Zuhumnan Dapel Abstract There is a widespread perception of a growing gulf in Nigeria between the poor and the nonpoor – that the rich are getting richer and the poor, poorer. And that this is standing in the way of the poor from sharing in the benefits of economic prosperity, thus, preventing many of them from escaping poverty. This paper presents a shred of counter-evidence. For instance, between 1980 and 2010 the GDP per capita of Nigeria rose by 18.92%; but at the same time the rate of absolute poverty rose by 62.76%; and the level of inequality – measured in terms of Gini Index – declined by 35.66%. The picture being painted by these stylized facts raises at least three questions: (a) over the past three decades, how has inequality in Nigeria evolved: has it be rising or falling? (b) What are the forces driving the change in the country's level of inequality? (c) If at all, does

My modelling the end of covid-19 pandemic

The UK:   There are N  people currently residing in the country, numbering (or indexed) from 1, 2, …., N.   This population is partitioned into two: those that have been teste d ( E ) and those that are yet to be tested ( Y ). It follows that N = E + Y;  E  ≤   N. K is number of confirmed cases,  so that K < E . There are K = 52k+ confirmed cases in the UK as of April 7. But this figure is less than the total actual number of infected persons in the country, which can be known by testing everybody in the country. If we assumed that the physical distancing preventive measure works out perfectly so that there are no more cases of person-person transmission, then the daily number of confirmed cases will still be rising as long as the entire population is still being tested. It is assumed that all the borders in the country are closed: there are no travellers entering in and leaving the country. If

On the emergence of COVID-19 vaccines

As scientists across the globe race towards finding a cure for the COVID-19 so are conspiracy theorists churning out suppositions and spreading misgivings about potential vaccines and treatments. Recently, a video on a forthcoming COVID-19 vaccine has been circulating on social media. Perhaps, like me, you’ve received it from many people. In it, is a claim of a so-called hidden sinister agenda of Bill Gates. That Mr Gates is laying the groundwork for the coming of the anti-Christ by veiling a micro-chip into human bodies in the name of administering a covid-19 vaccine. I don't believe this. Here's what I believe: I firmly believe that believers in Christ should be instruments in God’s hand in brightening the world and salting the earth: preaching the gospel, interceding for all men, seeking and saving the lost through the power of the cross that raised Jesus from the dead. I also believe that the mark of the beast will be issued after the trumpet has sounded and believers ar